The International Data Corporation (IDC) has updated its global smartphone market forecast, projecting a 1% growth in 2025 compared to 2024. This growth is primarily attributed to a 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in iPhone shipments, marking a significant contribution to the overall market expansion.
Global Smartphone Market Outlook
IDC anticipates that the total number of smartphone shipments will reach 1.24 billion units in 2025. This represents a modest improvement from the previous forecast of 0.6% growth. The upward revision underscores the impact of stronger-than-expected iPhone sales, which are expected to outperform the broader market.
Looking ahead, IDC projects continued growth in the smartphone market, with shipments increasing by 1.2% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, and 1.6% in 2028. However, growth is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2029, indicating a potential plateau in the market’s expansion.
Summary Table
Key Metric |
2025 Forecast |
|---|---|
Global Smartphone Shipments |
1.24 billion units |
YoY Growth |
1% |
iPhone Shipment Growth |
3.9% |
Average Selling Price (ASP) |
+5% |
Market Revenue Growth |
+6% |
GenAI Smartphone Shipments |
370 million (30% market share) |
Foldable Smartphone Growth |
6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, 11% in 2027 |
China Market Growth |
-1% |
Regional Market Dynamics
IDC’s forecast highlights varying growth rates across different regions:
-
United States: Expected to experience a 3.6% growth in smartphone shipments, driven by sustained consumer demand and technological advancements.
-
Middle East and Africa (MEA): Projected to see a 6.5% increase, fueled by expanding mobile infrastructure and rising smartphone adoption.
-
Asia Pacific (excluding China): Anticipated to grow by 0.8%, reflecting stable demand in emerging markets.
Conversely, China is expected to witness a 1% decline in smartphone shipments. This downturn is attributed to the phasing out of government subsidies, which had previously bolstered the market.
Average Selling Price and Revenue Growth
IDC forecasts a 5% increase in the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones in 2025. This uptick is expected to contribute to a 6% growth in overall market revenue, as consumers increasingly opt for premium devices with advanced features.
Emergence of GenAI Smartphones
The integration of Generative AI (GenAI) into smartphones is gaining momentum. IDC projects that over 370 million GenAI-enabled smartphones will be shipped in 2025, accounting for approximately 30% of the global smartphone market share. This trend reflects the growing consumer interest in AI-powered features and applications.
Rise of Foldable Smartphones
Foldable smartphones continue to evolve, with IDC forecasting a 6% growth in shipments in 2025 compared to 2024. This growth is expected to continue with a 6% increase in 2026 and an 11% rise in 2027, following Apple’s anticipated entry into the foldable market. Despite this growth, foldable devices are projected to constitute less than 3% of total smartphone shipments by 2029.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q. What is the projected growth rate of the global smartphone market in 2025?
A. IDC forecasts a 1% growth in the global smartphone market in 2025, reaching a total of 1.24 billion units.
Q. How much are iPhone shipments expected to increase in 2025?
A. iPhone shipments are projected to grow by 3.9% year-over-year in 2025, contributing significantly to the overall market growth.
Q. Which regions are expected to see the most growth in smartphone shipments?
A. The United States is expected to see a 3.6% growth, the Middle East and Africa 6.5%, and Asia Pacific excluding China 0.8%. However, China is projected to experience a 1% decline in shipments.
Q. What is the outlook for foldable smartphones?
A. Foldable smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 6% in 2025, with further growth projections of 6% in 2026 and 11% in 2027.
Q. What is the expected average selling price (ASP) trend for smartphones?
A. The average selling price per smartphone is expected to increase by 5% in 2025, leading to a 6% rise in overall market revenue.
Conclusion
IDC’s updated forecast indicates a modest but steady growth trajectory for the global smartphone market through 2029. The anticipated increase in iPhone shipments, coupled with the rise of GenAI and foldable smartphones, underscores the industry’s ongoing innovation and adaptation to consumer demands.
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